Odds and probability
Betting odds are a probability estimate in disguise: decimal odds of 2.00 equal 50%. Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome of a match and you get more than 100% — the excess is the bookmaker’s margin. A Poisson model turns each team’s scoring averages into the probability of every scoreline; it is simple, yet explains football goal counts surprisingly well.
Use responsibly
These tools are for education and analysis; no calculation guarantees a profit. Gambling is for adults (18+, or the legal age where you live) and only through licensed operators where it is legal. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose, and contact a support service such as GamCare (UK) or 1-800-GAMBLER (US) if betting stops being fun.